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Bracing Yourself for a Possible Near-Term Melt-Up
(A Very Personal View)
- Jeremy Grantham

- A melt-up or end-phase of a bubble within the next 6 months to 2 years is likely, i.e.,
over 50%.
- If there is a melt-up, then the odds of a subsequent bubble break or melt-down are
very, very high, i.e., over 90%.
- If there is a market decline following a melt-up, it is quite likely to be a decline of some 50%.
- If such a decline takes place, I believe the market is very likely (over 2:1) to bounce
back up way over the pre 1998 level of 15x, but likely a bit below the average trend of
the last 20 years, as the trend slowly works its way back toward the old normal on my
“Not with a Bang but a Whimper” flight path.

Posted: 2018-01-19 23:41:22


Posted: 2018-01-19 22:43:14

- Formed in 1892
- A founding member of DJIA
- Only remaining founding member in DJIA
- 13th largest US company by employees - 295,000 employees
- 31st largest company in the world by revenue - $126 billion
- Cut dividend 50% in Nov. to save $4 billion
- 85% cash flow goes to pay dividends
- Selling off the light bulb division
- Net income $9.77 billion

Links:
Wikipedia
Could GE get booted from the Dow after 110 years?
GE cuts dividend for second time since Great Depression
GE is breaking up with the light bulb, its most iconic accomplishment
GE's Power Outage Has Destroyed $100 Billion In Market Value
GE shares dive after ‘deeply disappointing’ $6.2 billion insurance portfolio charge



Posted: 2018-01-17 07:44:18


Posted: 2018-01-17 06:42:15


Posted: 2018-01-16 00:32:30


Posted: 2018-01-15 23:54:07


Posted: 2018-01-15 18:32:59


Posted: 2018-01-15 18:26:52


Posted: 2018-01-15 17:10:16


Posted: 2018-01-15 01:13:49


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