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Bracing Yourself for a Possible Near-Term Melt-Up

Finance, Economics, Current Events

Bracing Yourself for a Possible Near-Term Melt-Up
(A Very Personal View)
- Jeremy Grantham

- A melt-up or end-phase of a bubble within the next 6 months to 2 years is likely, i.e.,
over 50%.
- If there is a melt-up, then the odds of a subsequent bubble break or melt-down are
very, very high, i.e., over 90%.
- If there is a market decline following a melt-up, it is quite likely to be a decline of some 50%.
- If such a decline takes place, I believe the market is very likely (over 2:1) to bounce
back up way over the pre 1998 level of 15x, but likely a bit below the average trend of
the last 20 years, as the trend slowly works its way back toward the old normal on my
“Not with a Bang but a Whimper” flight path.

Posted: 2018-01-19 23:41:22

Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)

Econ Charts, Economics


Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)

Posted: 2018-01-19 22:43:14

General Electric

Business, Current Events

- Formed in 1892
- A founding member of DJIA
- Only remaining founding member in DJIA
- 13th largest US company by employees - 295,000 employees
- 31st largest company in the world by revenue - $126 billion
- Cut dividend 50% in Nov. to save $4 billion
- 85% cash flow goes to pay dividends
- Selling off the light bulb division
- Net income $9.77 billion

Links:
Wikipedia
Could GE get booted from the Dow after 110 years?
GE cuts dividend for second time since Great Depression
GE is breaking up with the light bulb, its most iconic accomplishment
GE's Power Outage Has Destroyed $100 Billion In Market Value
GE shares dive after ‘deeply disappointing’ $6.2 billion insurance portfolio charge



Posted: 2018-01-17 07:44:18

US Dollar Index

Econ Charts, Economics


US Dollar Index

Wikipedia

Posted: 2018-01-17 06:42:15

Financial Stress Index

Econ Charts, Economics


Financial Stress Index


Posted: 2018-01-16 00:32:30

Business Cycle Leading Index

Econ Charts, Economics


Business Cycle Leading Index


Posted: 2018-01-15 23:54:07

Aaa Corporate Bond Yield

Econ Charts, Economics


Aaa Corporate Bond Yield


Posted: 2018-01-15 18:32:59

30-10 year Treasury yield spread

Econ Charts, Economics


30-10 year Treasury yield spread


Posted: 2018-01-15 18:26:52

US Dollar vs Chinese Yuan

Econ Charts, Economics


US Dollar vs Chinese Yuan


Posted: 2018-01-15 17:10:16

U.S. Commercial Property Price Index

Econ Charts, Economics


Commercial Property Price Index

Posted: 2018-01-15 01:13:49


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