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For a very long time, most of the choices we've had to make are between what's good and what's better. Should I get an iPhone 11 or a Samsung Galaxy S20? Should I get a Chick-fil-A sandwich or a Popeye's chicken sandwich? Should I get Netflix or Disney Plus? We have all been living the life of ease and comfort and don't know what it means to make truly hard choices. But it has all now changed.

We are now entering a period where the choices are between what's bad or what's worse. Politicians are asking, "Should we quarantine everybody and prevent the deaths of millions of people or should we let the economy crash?" Health officials are asking, "Should we tell people to wear masks and risk a panic since there are no masks or should we not say anything and risk more people contracting coronavirus?" The Fed is asking, "Should we flood the economy with massive amounts of cash and risk hyperinflation or should there be a systemic financial collapse?" Companies are asking, "Should we burn through cash or not pay rent and lay people off?" Amazon workers are asking, "Should I go to work and risk getting covid-19 or should I stay home and not get paid?" Triage nurses are asking, "Who gets to have treatment and who has to go home?" Doctors are asking, "Between these two people, who should get the ventilator?" Navy Captain Crozier asked, "Should I disobey orders and give up my military career or should I save the lives of the crew from a coronavirus outbreak?" Migrant workers are asking, "Should I obey the government and stay at home or should I go work so I can feed my family?" Work at home employees are asking, "How are we able to take care of the kids at home and also work?" Laid off people are asking, "Should I go to the food bank that has 100 people waiting in line or the food bank that has 120 people waiting in line?"

Before, there was really no bad choice we can make, every choice was relatively easy and it didn't really matter which one we chose. Now, there will be no good choice that we can make, every choice will be a difficult one.

Judging by how long we've lived the life of easy choices, it's not likely the period of having to make hard choices will be short.

Posted: 2020-04-04 07:03:28

Coronavirus
- Hospitals Tell Doctors They’ll Be Fired If They Speak Out About Lack of Gear
- First US service member dies from coronavirus
- What Experts Say You Can Do to Treat Yourself at Home If You Have a Mild Case of COVID-19
- Connecticut Newborn Believed To Be World's Youngest Patient To Die From COVID-19
- These Coronavirus Exposures Might Be the Most Dangerous
- U.S. coronavirus deaths top 1,000 in single day, White House expected to recommend everyone wear masks
- Confirmed Coronavirus Cases Worldwide Pass One Million After Doubling In Less Than A Week
- Georgia governor says he didn't know people without symptoms can spread coronavirus
- Fauci: 'I don't understand why' every state hasn't issued stay-at-home orders

Business/Economy
- GOP Rep. Rogers: ‘The Economy Is Going to Roar Back by Fall’
- A glossary of the Federal Reserve's full arsenal of 'bazookas'
- Instacart employees plan nationwide strike as demand for grocery delivery soars amid coronavirus outbreak
- US mall owner Taubman is telling tenants they must pay rent
- YouTube to reduce video quality worldwide to ease strain on internet networks
- Retailers Prepare For Civil Unrest; Boarded-Up Stores Seen From SoHo To Beverly Hills
- Whole Foods Employees Are Staging a Nationwide 'Sick-Out'
- Kennedy Center, with $25 Million Stimulus Funding, Furloughs 96 Members of National Symphony
- Banks Stuck With $23 Billion of Loans for T-Mobile’s Sprint Deal
- Fed Launches Repo Facility To Provide Dollars To Foreign Central Bank
- U.S. Retail Crisis Deepens as Hundreds of Thousands Lose Work
- Amazon Fires Worker Who Led Strike Over Virus
- U.S. consumer confidence sinks as virus begins having impact
- 28 percent of Americans say they've already lost wages
- J.C. Penney furloughs most of its 90,000 workers as stores remain closed until further notice
- Ford Is Delaying North American Production "Indefinitely"
- Foretaste of the Lockdown-Driven Collapse in the Services & Retail Sectors: Holy Moly, What a Catastrophic Mess
- Broken Markets: A Visual Odyssey Through All The Market's Dislocations In 56 Charts
- Fed Temporarily Eases Capital Requirements for Big Banks
- Jobless claims leap record 6.6 million at end of March
- Amazon Bans Sale Of N95 And Surgical Masks To General Public
- US Box Office Sales Collapse To Just $5,179; Was $204 Million During Same Period Last Year
- What Really Caused Oil To Rally By 25%?
- As millions lose jobs, Fed policymakers say recession is here
- "US Labor Market Is In Free-Fall" - 10 Million Americans Have Filed For Unemployment In Past 2 Weeks
- Amazon warehouses will stop accepting non-essential items
- U.S. Payrolls Fall 701,000 in March Ahead of Surge in Layoffs

Government
- Trump Authorizes Defense Secretary Mark Esper to Order National Guard and Reservists to Active Duty
- Mnuchin: US will bounce back after we 'kill this virus' and 'reopen this economy'
- Trump extends federal social distancing guidelines to April 30
- DC mayor threatens jail time for leaving home during coronavirus
- CDC considering recommending general public wear face coverings in public
- White House projects 100K to 240K US deaths from virus
- Protective gear in national stockpile is nearly depleted, DHS officials say

World
- German state minister kills himself as coronavirus hits economy
- China Shuts Down All Cinemas
- China Is "Fixed": Chinese PMIs Soar Back Into Expansion, Smashing Expectations
- Wuhan Residents Dismiss Official Coronavirus Death Toll: ‘The Incinerators Have Been Working Around the Clock’
- New Law Gives Sweeping Powers To Hungary's Orban
- For India’s Laborers, Coronavirus Lockdown Is an Order to Starve
- Coronavirus measures could cause global food shortage, UN warns
- Social unrest spreads in Italy as coronavirus lockdown nears fourth week
- "Shoot them dead": Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte orders police and military to kill citizens who defy coronavirus lockdown
- Wuhan, endless queues for ashes of coronavirus dead cast doubts on numbers

Society
- Federal authorities warn of an increase in Asian American hate crimes
- Malaysia apologises for telling women not to nag during lockdown
- Florida Pastor Arrested After Defying Virus Orders
- ‘Jails Are Petri Dishes’: Inmates Freed as the Virus Spreads Behind Bars
- Empire State Building Debuts Dystopian Red ‘Siren’ Light
- Louisiana pastor arrested for holding services with up to 1,000 attendees
- Cincinnati police temporarily suspending in-person response to certain 911 calls
- Lines stretch at California food banks near Disneyland as 'The Happiest Place on Earth's' home city is crippled by its closure and charities warn of 40-fold increase in pleas for help

Lockdowns, Closures
- Florida governor Ron DeSantis finally issues a statewide lockdown
- 30 states have issued stay-at-home orders
- Coast Guard: Cruise ships must stay at sea with sick onboard
- Grand Canyon National Park closes to visitors amid pandemic

Local
- Dunwoody shelter-in-place begins Sunday at midnight
- Days After a Funeral in a Georgia Town, Coronavirus ‘Hit Like a Bomb’
- All Fulton residents ordered to stay home or face jail/fines
- Gov. Kemp orders statewide shelter-in-place, closes schools for rest of school year

Military
- US Navy relieves commander of coronavirus-hit ship over memo leak

Sports
- Wimbledon Canceled for 1st Time Since WWII

Food
- U.S. dairy farmers dump milk as pandemic upends food markets

Weather
- Swarm of 650 earthquakes rattles Utah, Idaho and California
- Strong Magnitude 6.5 Earthquake Hits Idaho For First Time In 50 Years, As Quakes Recorded In Yellowstone And Salt Lake City
- "Above normal" 2020 Atlantic hurricane season on tap, researchers forecast

Precious metals
- The COMEX Issues and Stops Reports Expose Conditions Behind Physical Gold Supply Problems
- Gold Is Now “Unobtanium”
- US Mint West Point Shut Down 2 Week Minimum
- Gold Dealers Report Big Shortages of Small Bars and Coins
- Mexico mining suspension to hit silver supply

Videos
- You Need To Listen To This Leading COVID-19 Expert From South Korea | ASIAN BOSS
- Do Re Mi - Covid 19 version

Twitter
- Hundreds of cars wait to receive food from the Greater Community Food Bank in Duquesne

Op-ed
- Donald Trump And The Fed Are Destroying The U.S. Dollar
- Did Pensions Just Kill The Rally: Quarter-End Rebalancing Suspended Until Further Notice?
- Billionaire David Geffen Incites Social Media Riot After Posting Photos "Quarantined" On His $590 Million Superyacht
- Is Your Grocery Delivery Worth a Worker’s Life?


Posted: 2020-04-03 20:14:06

Coronavirus
- Hospitals Tell Doctors They’ll Be Fired If They Speak Out About Lack of Gear
- First US service member dies from coronavirus
- What Experts Say You Can Do to Treat Yourself at Home If You Have a Mild Case of COVID-19
- Connecticut Newborn Believed To Be World's Youngest Patient To Die From COVID-19
- These Coronavirus Exposures Might Be the Most Dangerous
- U.S. coronavirus deaths top 1,000 in single day, White House expected to recommend everyone wear masks
- Confirmed Coronavirus Cases Worldwide Pass One Million After Doubling In Less Than A Week
- Georgia governor says he didn't know people without symptoms can spread coronavirus
- Fauci: 'I don't understand why' every state hasn't issued stay-at-home orders

Business/Economy
- GOP Rep. Rogers: ‘The Economy Is Going to Roar Back by Fall’
- A glossary of the Federal Reserve's full arsenal of 'bazookas'
- Instacart employees plan nationwide strike as demand for grocery delivery soars amid coronavirus outbreak
- US mall owner Taubman is telling tenants they must pay rent
- YouTube to reduce video quality worldwide to ease strain on internet networks
- Retailers Prepare For Civil Unrest; Boarded-Up Stores Seen From SoHo To Beverly Hills
- Whole Foods Employees Are Staging a Nationwide 'Sick-Out'
- Kennedy Center, with $25 Million Stimulus Funding, Furloughs 96 Members of National Symphony
- Banks Stuck With $23 Billion of Loans for T-Mobile’s Sprint Deal
- Fed Launches Repo Facility To Provide Dollars To Foreign Central Bank
- U.S. Retail Crisis Deepens as Hundreds of Thousands Lose Work
- Amazon Fires Worker Who Led Strike Over Virus
- U.S. consumer confidence sinks as virus begins having impact
- 28 percent of Americans say they've already lost wages
- J.C. Penney furloughs most of its 90,000 workers as stores remain closed until further notice
- Ford Is Delaying North American Production "Indefinitely"
- Foretaste of the Lockdown-Driven Collapse in the Services & Retail Sectors: Holy Moly, What a Catastrophic Mess
- Broken Markets: A Visual Odyssey Through All The Market's Dislocations In 56 Charts
- Fed Temporarily Eases Capital Requirements for Big Banks
- Jobless claims leap record 6.6 million at end of March
- Amazon Bans Sale Of N95 And Surgical Masks To General Public
- US Box Office Sales Collapse To Just $5,179; Was $204 Million During Same Period Last Year
- What Really Caused Oil To Rally By 25%?
- As millions lose jobs, Fed policymakers say recession is here
- "US Labor Market Is In Free-Fall" - 10 Million Americans Have Filed For Unemployment In Past 2 Weeks
- Amazon warehouses will stop accepting non-essential items
- U.S. Payrolls Fall 701,000 in March Ahead of Surge in Layoffs

Government
- Trump Authorizes Defense Secretary Mark Esper to Order National Guard and Reservists to Active Duty
- Mnuchin: US will bounce back after we 'kill this virus' and 'reopen this economy'
- Trump extends federal social distancing guidelines to April 30
- DC mayor threatens jail time for leaving home during coronavirus
- CDC considering recommending general public wear face coverings in public
- White House projects 100K to 240K US deaths from virus
- Protective gear in national stockpile is nearly depleted, DHS officials say

World
- German state minister kills himself as coronavirus hits economy
- China Shuts Down All Cinemas
- China Is "Fixed": Chinese PMIs Soar Back Into Expansion, Smashing Expectations
- Wuhan Residents Dismiss Official Coronavirus Death Toll: ‘The Incinerators Have Been Working Around the Clock’
- New Law Gives Sweeping Powers To Hungary's Orban
- For India’s Laborers, Coronavirus Lockdown Is an Order to Starve
- Coronavirus measures could cause global food shortage, UN warns
- Social unrest spreads in Italy as coronavirus lockdown nears fourth week
- "Shoot them dead": Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte orders police and military to kill citizens who defy coronavirus lockdown
- Wuhan, endless queues for ashes of coronavirus dead cast doubts on numbers

Society
- Federal authorities warn of an increase in Asian American hate crimes
- Malaysia apologises for telling women not to nag during lockdown
- Florida Pastor Arrested After Defying Virus Orders
- ‘Jails Are Petri Dishes’: Inmates Freed as the Virus Spreads Behind Bars
- Empire State Building Debuts Dystopian Red ‘Siren’ Light
- Louisiana pastor arrested for holding services with up to 1,000 attendees
- Cincinnati police temporarily suspending in-person response to certain 911 calls
- Lines stretch at California food banks near Disneyland as 'The Happiest Place on Earth's' home city is crippled by its closure and charities warn of 40-fold increase in pleas for help

Lockdowns, Closures
- Florida governor Ron DeSantis finally issues a statewide lockdown
- 30 states have issued stay-at-home orders
- Coast Guard: Cruise ships must stay at sea with sick onboard
- Grand Canyon National Park closes to visitors amid pandemic

Local
- Dunwoody shelter-in-place begins Sunday at midnight
- Days After a Funeral in a Georgia Town, Coronavirus ‘Hit Like a Bomb’
- All Fulton residents ordered to stay home or face jail/fines
- Gov. Kemp orders statewide shelter-in-place, closes schools for rest of school year

Military
- US Navy relieves commander of coronavirus-hit ship over memo leak

Sports
- Wimbledon Canceled for 1st Time Since WWII

Food
- U.S. dairy farmers dump milk as pandemic upends food markets

Weather
- Swarm of 650 earthquakes rattles Utah, Idaho and California
- Strong Magnitude 6.5 Earthquake Hits Idaho For First Time In 50 Years, As Quakes Recorded In Yellowstone And Salt Lake City
- "Above normal" 2020 Atlantic hurricane season on tap, researchers forecast

Precious metals
- The COMEX Issues and Stops Reports Expose Conditions Behind Physical Gold Supply Problems
- Gold Is Now “Unobtanium”
- US Mint West Point Shut Down 2 Week Minimum
- Gold Dealers Report Big Shortages of Small Bars and Coins
- Mexico mining suspension to hit silver supply

Videos
- You Need To Listen To This Leading COVID-19 Expert From South Korea | ASIAN BOSS
- Do Re Mi - Covid 19 version

Twitter
- Hundreds of cars wait to receive food from the Greater Community Food Bank in Duquesne

Op-ed
- Donald Trump And The Fed Are Destroying The U.S. Dollar
- Did Pensions Just Kill The Rally: Quarter-End Rebalancing Suspended Until Further Notice?
- Billionaire David Geffen Incites Social Media Riot After Posting Photos "Quarantined" On His $590 Million Superyacht
- Is Your Grocery Delivery Worth a Worker’s Life?


Posted: 2020-04-03 17:18:40

Coronavirus
- Rand Paul's coronavirus diagnosis sends shockwaves through Senate
- U.S. coronavirus cases most in world, overtaking China and Italy
- Coronavirus exacts heavy toll in Albany

World
- Germany's Merkel in quarantine after doctor tests positive for coronavirus
- Germany Bans Groups of More Than 2
- India locks down over 100 million people
- Total ban of coming out of your homes for India
- India's central bank unexpectedly cuts rates
- Prime Minister Boris Johnson has tested positive
- South Africa Goes Into 3-Week Lockdown
- Bank of Canada cuts rates, starts buying bonds
- South African military on streets as 21-day lockdown begins

Business/Finance
- Unemployment could reach 30% in the U.S., says St. Louis Fed’s Bullard
- U.S. mortgage bond market in turmoil
- Behind the urge to stockpile: First masks, then toilet paper, now cash?
- Airlines Carnage Deepens With Emirates, Singapore Air Cuts
- Fed, saying aggressive action is needed, starts unlimited QE
- Zillow to pause home buying in all markets
- Boeing plans two-week shutdown of factories
- Dow rebounds more than 11% in best day since 1933
- Bernanke says this is no Great Depression
- Cheesecake Factory Tells Landlords It Won’t Pay April Rent After Loss of Income
- Share buyback frenzy halts as fund managers urge caution
- 3.28 million Americans applied for unemployment
- Mnuchin says jobless claims data is not relevant
- The S&P 500 had its best three-day run since 1933, buoyed by a huge stimulus plan, as investors looked past record unemployment claims.
- GM extends shutdown indefinitely
- Dealers Run Out Of Securities To Use In Fed Repo Operations
- Fed's term repo operation receives no bids for first time

Government
- Mnuchin confident that stimulus package will keep economy afloat until coronavirus passes
- Emergency Economic Rescue Plan in Limbo as Democrats Block Action
- Sen. Kelly Loeffler under fire for stock trades
- EPA has stopped enforcing environmental laws
- Trump signs $2T coronavirus relief package

Sports
- Tokyo 2020 Olympics are postponed

Lockdowns
- A Guide to State Coronavirus Lockdowns
- Ohio becomes sixth US state to declare coronavirus lockdown
- Atlanta placed under 'stay-at-home' order

Closures
- The list of retail chains closing grows. What's still open?

Gold
- Payments-Panic & The Endgame Of Fiat Currencies
- Royal Canadian Mint shuts down production for two weeks

Guns
- Gun sales on the rise as coronavirus concerns spread
- NJ – NICS Check Shutdown

Videos
- Super Depression Coming - Economic Reality - Entitlement Society - Bank Runs
- The Next Black Swan Event: Adam Baratta

Op-ed
- This Is Not a Recession. It’s an Ice Age.
- The unprecedented number of CEOs resigning was because they knew a plot to tank the economy was in place.
- Insanity: Stocks Enter New Bull Market On Day Initial Claims Hit 3.3 Million
- Welcome To The War On Death
- This isn’t your ordinary recession — the U.S. is now experiencing a economic meltdown more typical of a Third World natural disaster

Posted: 2020-03-27 20:08:26

- CARES Act (Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act)
- Largest rescue package in American history
- $2 trillion total
- $300 billion to individuals
- Individuals prorated from $75K to $99K AGI
- Couples prorated from $150K to $198K AGI
- $1200 per adult and $500 per child
- $600 addition per week for unemployed
- ~90% of households (165 million) would benefit from the checks
- Payment will be non-taxable
- Steve Mnuchin, "We’re determined to get money in people’s pockets immediately. That will be within three weeks."
- $350 billion forgiveable loan to small businesses if they keep workers employed
- $58 billion for airlines
- $100 billion of hospitals
- $20 billion for veterans
- $8.8 billion for child nutrition
- $15.5 billion for SNAP (food stamps)
- $340 billion for state and local governments
- Thomas Massie delayed vote by requesting to have a recorded vote
- "Mnuchin told reporters at a White House press briefing earlier this week that he believed the bill would keep the economy afloat for three months if the coronavirus effects are felt that long."
- Nancy Pelosi, "We think we'll get more direct payments in another bill."

Links:
- Trump signs $2T coronavirus relief package
- What's Inside The Senate's $2 Trillion Coronavirus Aid Package
- Senate Passes $2 Trillion Coronavirus Relief Package
- F.A.Q. on Stimulus Checks, Unemployment and the Coronavirus Bill
- Mnuchin: Stimulus checks will arrive within three weeks

Posted: 2020-03-27 18:05:02

Fed balance sheet explodes to $5.25 trillion.

Jerome Powell, “When it comes to this lending, we're not going to run out of ammunition. That doesn't happen."



Links:
St Louis Fed - Fed balance sheet
FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release - March 26, 2020
Powell: Federal Reserve will not 'run out of ammunition' to protect economy

Posted: 2020-03-27 06:19:33

3.283 million filed for unemployment. Previous record was 695,000 in Oct 1982.



During the Great Depression of 1929, highest level of unemployment was 24.9%. But, that figure only included men.



We will blow away the 25% unemployment from the Great Depression, but now it also includes women.

Posted: 2020-03-26 21:13:35

Some companies tapping into credit lines:
- Hilton - $1.8 billion
- Wynn Resorts - $850 million
- Air France-KLM - $1.2 billion
- Kraft Heinz - $4 billion
- Royal Caribbean - $2.8 billion

Reasons:
- Drying up of revenue
- Drying up of bond market
- Still need to pay expenses
- Drying up of commercial paper market
- Potential credit freeze in near future

Links
Big Firms Draw Down Billion Dollar Credit Lines
Businesses Face a New Coronavirus Threat: Shrinking Access to Credit
US companies eye credit lines as pandemic worsens, uncertainty soars
Banks scramble as companies rush to tap back-up credit lines

Posted: 2020-03-21 12:10:16

Coronavirus
- Coronavirus cases top 200,000
- Coronavirus has now spread to all 50 states and DC, US death toll passes 100
- Thousands line up for first drive-thru coronavirus testing

Finance/Business
- Fed cuts rate to 0, starts QE
- Reserve requirements cut to zero
- Fed Establishes Currency Swaps With 9 Central Banks
- Fed backstops money markets
- Fed backstops municipal bonds
- Dow drops 3,000 points on Monday
- 10-year Treasury yield sees biggest one-day drop since March 2009 after Fed’s emergency actions
- NYSE to temporarily close floor
- Dow closes below 20,000
- 1 and 3 month Treasuries hit negative rates
- Paper and physical gold price decouple
- Unemployment claims skyrocket
- ECB announces €750 billion Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme
- Oil hits 18-year low
- Companies suspend earnings forecast
- Manufacturing orders plunge from 33.6 to -15.5
- Bank of England (BOE) cut interest rates to 0.1%

World
- France and Spain ban all non-essential activities
- Canada closes borders to foreign travelers
- England to shut schools
- European Union closes external borders
- China Expels American Journalists
- UK national lockdown

Government
- Atlanta mayor declares state of emergency in city
- House lawmakers indefinitely postpone return to Washington
- Supreme Court, for first time since 1918, postpones oral arguments
- Canadian border closes
- Government bailout requests top $1 trillion
- Congressman insider trading

Closures
- Closure of restaurants, bars in Washington state will last 2 weeks and may be extended
- NY City Schools, Restaurants and Bars Are Shut Down
- Chick-fil-A closes dining room doors
- T-Mobile Closes Indoor Mall Stores
- T-Mobile closes 80% of corporate retail stores
- Bay Area counties ordered to shelter in place
- Automakers temporarily shut down factories
- Malls shut down
- Hollywood Studios Halt Film And TV Production
- Atlanta limits restaurants, closes bars
- California issues order to ‘stay at home’

Links
- "Total F**king Carnage" - Global Liquidation Accelerates Despite Massive Monetary Intervention
- 3/16 updates

Posted: 2020-03-20 16:07:36



- The difference between the FRA (Forward Rate Agreement) and OIS (Overnight Index Swap)
- For the US, the FRA is the 3-month Libor (London interbank offered rate)
- For the US, the OIS is the Fed Reserve overnight index rate
- An indicator of funding stress in the banking sector and liquidity shortage
- Peaked to 170 in November 2008
- Has spiked to 2009 levels

Links
Something Is Breaking: Fed Fails To Ease Epic Dollar Shortage As FRA/OIS Goes Parabolic
Why It Matters That the FRA-OIS Spread Is Widening
Deeper look at the spike in the 3-month FRA-OIS spread and repo rates.

Posted: 2020-03-14 09:14:24


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