Bracing Yourself for a Possible Near-Term Melt-Up
(A Very Personal View) – Jeremy Grantham
– A melt-up or end-phase of a bubble within the next 6 months to 2 years is likely, i.e.,
over 50%.
– If there is a melt-up, then the odds of a subsequent bubble break or melt-down are
very, very high, i.e., over 90%.
– If there is a market decline following a melt-up, it is quite likely to be a decline of some 50%.
– If such a decline takes place, I believe the market is very likely (over 2:1) to bounce
back up way over the pre 1998 level of 15x, but likely a bit below the average trend of
the last 20 years, as the trend slowly works its way back toward the old normal on my
“Not with a Bang but a Whimper†flight path.